Relay FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Leader sits at 64% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 45%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$100M
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
45¢
$300M
Spread
19pp
contested
24h volume
$86
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
602 days
Venue
Polymarket
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Relay FDV above ___ one day after launch
Relay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M
0x1d8072…77b2
Relay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $700M
0xcd47be…c772
Relay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $1B
0x1f1b08…57c2
Relay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $1.5B
0xd3418d…daed
Relay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $1.2B
0xadadc2…bdfe
Relay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $300M
0x3bef83…865f
Relay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $800M
0x37ca4e…bfd6
Relay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M
0xc9f02d…2a1e
Relay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $900M
0xc31c1d…29e2
Relay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $600M
0x5ea3bf…45b5
Analysis
This market assesses the probability that Relay will have a fully diluted valuation above $900 million one day after its launch. The 58% probability reflects moderately bullish positioning, suggesting traders see this as more likely than not but with meaningful downside risk. The valuation hinges on Relay's initial token pricing, market demand at launch, and broader crypto market conditions on launch day. The outcome will be determined immediately once the token begins trading and price discovery occurs. Related projects show mixed expectations: similar-tier projects are priced for $500-800M valuations by traders, while less mature projects target lower thresholds, suggesting uncertainty about where Relay specifically will land. Market movement will largely depend on launch timing announcement and pre-launch momentum.
- ›Relay's token launch date and pre-launch marketing intensity will directly influence initial trading volume and price discovery speed
- ›Comparable project valuations on Polymarket ($500M-$800M thresholds showing 17-44% implied probability) suggest $900M represents an above-consensus outcome
- ›Broader crypto market sentiment on launch day significantly impacts token valuations; Bitcoin and Ethereum volatility will create conditions either supporting or constraining upside
- ›The $900M threshold sits above the mode of related project expectations but below the $1B+ targets some traders price at 17% probability, indicating genuine disagreement on execution quality
What moved the line
- May 2$1B↑20pp32→52¢ · Polymarket
- May 3$700M↓17pp48→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 2$900M↓17pp46→29¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$1.5B↓14pp19→5¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$300M↑12pp38→50¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.