Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by May 31?
Leader sits at 40% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↓ 1.7M
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
↓ 1.6M
Spread
36pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
May 31, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by May 31
What moved the line
- Jun 1↓ 1.7M↓20pp21→1¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Iran Peace Deal Odds Collapse as June Deadlines Loom
The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30 dropped 6 cents to 17%, and by July 31 fell 11 cents to 28%. This swift repricing reflects increased skepticism that the parties can reach an agreement in the near term, putting upward pressure on oil risk premium. The 'No Meeting by June 30' contract for US-Iran diplomatic meetings jumped to 67 cents.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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