What will Marco Rubio say during Senate Foreign Relations Committee State Department Budget Hearing
Leader sits at 82% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 80%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Embassy
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
80¢
China / Chinese
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$572
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 17, 2026
20 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will Marco Rubio say during Senate Foreign Relations Committee State Department Budget Hearing
What will Marco Rubio say during Senate Foreign Relations Committee State Department Budget Hearing?: Trump (5+ times)
KXRUBIOMENTION-26JUN02-TRUM
What will Marco Rubio say during Senate Foreign Relations Committee State Department Budget Hearing?: Embassy
KXRUBIOMENTION-26JUN02-EMBA
What will Marco Rubio say during Senate Foreign Relations Committee State Department Budget Hearing?: China / Chinese
KXRUBIOMENTION-26JUN02-CHIN
What will Marco Rubio say during Senate Foreign Relations Committee State Department Budget Hearing?: Nuclear
KXRUBIOMENTION-26JUN02-NUCL
What will Marco Rubio say during Senate Foreign Relations Committee State Department Budget Hearing?: Event does not qualify
KXRUBIOMENTION-26JUN02-NQE
What will Marco Rubio say during Senate Foreign Relations Committee State Department Budget Hearing?: Ceasefire
KXRUBIOMENTION-26JUN02-CEAS
What will Marco Rubio say during Senate Foreign Relations Committee State Department Budget Hearing?: Board of Peace
KXRUBIOMENTION-26JUN02-BOAR
What will Marco Rubio say during Senate Foreign Relations Committee State Department Budget Hearing?: Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation
KXRUBIOMENTION-26JUN02-NEGO
What will Marco Rubio say during Senate Foreign Relations Committee State Department Budget Hearing?: Tariff
KXRUBIOMENTION-26JUN02-TARI
What will Marco Rubio say during Senate Foreign Relations Committee State Department Budget Hearing?: Cuba / Cuban
KXRUBIOMENTION-26JUN02-CUBA
What will Marco Rubio say during Senate Foreign Relations Committee State Department Budget Hearing?: Democrat
KXRUBIOMENTION-26JUN02-DEMO
What will Marco Rubio say during Senate Foreign Relations Committee State Department Budget Hearing?: NATO
KXRUBIOMENTION-26JUN02-NATO
What will Marco Rubio say during Senate Foreign Relations Committee State Department Budget Hearing?: Israel / Israeli
KXRUBIOMENTION-26JUN02-ISRA
What will Marco Rubio say during Senate Foreign Relations Committee State Department Budget Hearing?: Hormuz
KXRUBIOMENTION-26JUN02-HORM
What will Marco Rubio say during Senate Foreign Relations Committee State Department Budget Hearing?: Climate
KXRUBIOMENTION-26JUN02-CLIM
What will Marco Rubio say during Senate Foreign Relations Committee State Department Budget Hearing?: Ukraine
KXRUBIOMENTION-26JUN02-UKRA
What will Marco Rubio say during Senate Foreign Relations Committee State Department Budget Hearing?: Palestine / Gaza
KXRUBIOMENTION-26JUN02-PALE
What will Marco Rubio say during Senate Foreign Relations Committee State Department Budget Hearing?: Oil / Gas / Gasoline
KXRUBIOMENTION-26JUN02-OIL
What will Marco Rubio say during Senate Foreign Relations Committee State Department Budget Hearing?: AI / Artificial Intelligence
KXRUBIOMENTION-26JUN02-AI
What will Marco Rubio say during Senate Foreign Relations Committee State Department Budget Hearing?: 2028 / Campaign
KXRUBIOMENTION-26JUN02-2028
Analysis
This market measures the probability that Marco Rubio will mention Israel or Israeli-related topics during an upcoming Senate Foreign Relations Committee State Department Budget Hearing. At 68%, the market indicates traders consider it more likely than not that Israel will be discussed, reflecting both Rubio's known foreign policy interests and the frequency with which Middle Eastern affairs arise in such hearings. The current probability is primarily driven by Rubio's consistent focus on Israeli security matters and his role as a senior committee member, balanced against uncertainty about the specific hearing's agenda and which topics will receive attention. The hearing itself—scheduled for early June 2026—will definitively resolve whether Israel or Israeli issues are mentioned, making the actual event the key catalyst for settlement.
- ›Rubio's documented voting record and public statements on Israel policy as a reliable indicator of likely discussion topics
- ›The frequency with which Middle East and Israeli issues appear in State Department budget hearings versus other foreign policy topics
- ›The specific agenda items and witness testimony scheduled for the hearing, which will determine topical focus
- ›Competition from other high-priority topics (Trump mentions at 34%, Democratic responses at 53%, embassy matters at 63%) that could consume hearing time
- ›The hearing date in early June 2026 as the resolution trigger—the actual occurrence will determine definitively whether Israel is mentioned
What moved the line
- May 28Embassy↑23pp55→78¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Democrat↑21pp56→77¢ · Kalshi
- May 27Israel / Israeli↑18pp50→68¢ · Kalshi
- May 27Embassy↑17pp38→55¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Board of Peace↑17pp42→59¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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