Will Artemis SailGP Team win the 2026 SailGP Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$388
5 contracts
Closes
Dec 21, 2026
94 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will United States SailGP Team win the 2026 SailGP Championship
Will United States SailGP Team win the 2026 SailGP Championship?: United States SailGP Team
KXSAILGP-26-USA
Cluster 2
Will Emirates GBR win the 2026 SailGP Championship
Will Emirates GBR win the 2026 SailGP Championship?: Emirates GBR
KXSAILGP-26-GBR
Cluster 3
Will Bonds Flying Roos win the 2026 SailGP Championship
Will Bonds Flying Roos win the 2026 SailGP Championship?: Bonds Flying Roos
KXSAILGP-26-AUS
Cluster 4
Will Artemis SailGP Team win the 2026 SailGP Championship
Will Artemis SailGP Team win the 2026 SailGP Championship?: Artemis SailGP Team
KXSAILGP-26-ART
Cluster 5
Will Los Gallos win the 2026 SailGP Championship
Will Los Gallos win the 2026 SailGP Championship?: Los Gallos
KXSAILGP-26-ESP
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Artemis SailGP Team will not win the 2026 SailGP Championship, with odds at 22 cents suggesting roughly one-in-five chances. The current market positions Bonds Flying Roos as the favorite at 47 cents, with Los Gallos and other teams also considered competitive. The relatively low probability for Artemis likely reflects either recent performance data, roster changes, or perceived technical disadvantages compared to leading competitors. Resolution of this market depends on the completion of the full 2026 SailGP season and final championship standings. Key uncertainties include team performance during preliminary races, any mid-season roster adjustments, and how closely Artemis can match the pace of higher-probability contenders through the season's duration.
- ›Artemis trades at 22 cents versus Bonds Flying Roos at 47 cents, indicating market consensus views Artemis as approximately 2.1x less likely to win than the current favorite
- ›Trading volume across all four Artemis-related contracts shows $0 in 24-hour volume, suggesting minimal recent market activity and potentially stale pricing
- ›Artemis's probability (22%) matches Los Gallos (23%) despite different historical performance records, indicating market assessment may reflect team composition or technical capability rather than tradition
- ›Emirates GBR trades at only 8 cents despite being an established program, suggesting market focus narrows to 3-4 primary contenders for the 2026 championship
- ›The 2026 SailGP season schedule and completion date will determine when this market resolves, with championship finals likely determining final outcomes
What moved the line
- Sep 17Artemis SailGP Team↑5pp4→9¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Los Gallos↑4pp21→25¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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