Will Artemis SailGP Team win the 2026 SailGP Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 16% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
16%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
6 contracts
Closes
Dec 21, 2026
226 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Los Gallos win the 2026 SailGP Championship
Will Los Gallos win the 2026 SailGP Championship?: Los Gallos
KXSAILGP-26-ESP
Cluster 2
Will Emirates GBR win the 2026 SailGP Championship
Will Emirates GBR win the 2026 SailGP Championship?: Emirates GBR
KXSAILGP-26-GBR
Cluster 3
Will United States SailGP Team win the 2026 SailGP Championship
Will United States SailGP Team win the 2026 SailGP Championship?: United States SailGP Team
KXSAILGP-26-USA
Cluster 4
Will Artemis SailGP Team win the 2026 SailGP Championship
Will Artemis SailGP Team win the 2026 SailGP Championship?: Artemis SailGP Team
KXSAILGP-26-ART
Cluster 5
Will Bonds Flying Roos win the 2026 SailGP Championship
Will Bonds Flying Roos win the 2026 SailGP Championship?: Bonds Flying Roos
KXSAILGP-26-AUS
Cluster 6
Will France SailGP Team win the 2026 SailGP Championship
Will France SailGP Team win the 2026 SailGP Championship?: France SailGP Team
KXSAILGP-26-FRA
Analysis
This represents the estimated likelihood that Artemis SailGP Team will win the 2026 SailGP Championship, currently assessed at 12%. The probability reflects the team's competitive standing relative to other SailGP franchises heading into 2026. Key drivers of this probability include Artemis's historical race performance, crew composition and stability, boat development progress, and performance relative to competitors like New Zealand, British, and Swiss teams who typically contend for titles. The championship unfolds across multiple races throughout 2026, with results from early-season events (likely April-May) providing the most immediate data points that would adjust the probability significantly. Teams demonstrating consistent podium finishes and tactical execution would see odds improve, while early elimination or multiple losses would lower them.
- ›Artemis's finishing position and point accumulation in the first 3-4 SailGP events of the 2026 season
- ›Crew performance metrics including helm consistency, strategy execution, and boat handling relative to top competitors
- ›Budget and technical innovation investment compared to other SailGP teams with demonstrated recent championship wins
- ›Historical head-to-head racing records between Artemis and the current season's top-seeded teams
- ›Any roster changes, coaching staff adjustments, or technical penalties that affect team competitiveness before mid-season
What moved the line
- May 7Bonds Flying Roos↑20pp20→40¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Emirates GBR↑6pp22→28¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Emirates GBR↓5pp27→22¢ · Kalshi
- May 6United States SailGP Team↑5pp5→10¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Emirates GBR↑4pp23→27¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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