Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets
Leader sits at 78% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 57%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
57¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
21pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
May 6, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xd2a242…44ad
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: Cerezo Ōsaka (-1.5)
0x339193…6144
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x699392…76a7
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x8f53ed…5fd7
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: Shimizu S-Pulse (-1.5)
0x58a32c…7fa2
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xfb2380…fa88
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5)
0xbf161f…ec44
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x9ba576…5369
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: Shimizu S-Pulse (-2.5)
0xc33d1c…62ae
Analysis
The 50% probability indicates that traders currently assess Shimizu S-Pulse and Cerezo Ōsaka as nearly evenly matched in an upcoming match, with Cerezo favored slightly in some derivative markets at 33 cents for a -1.5 spread. The mid-50% pricing reflects thin liquidity across the contract set ($0 in 24-hour volume) and limited consensus; Polymarket's other S-Pulse contract shows 44 cents, suggesting some traders expect Shimizu to perform better than the leader's current pricing implies. The probability would shift upward if recent form data favors Shimizu, downward if Cerezo's recent wins or head-to-head record dominates trader calculations. Resolution depends on the scheduled match outcome, which will definitively settle the contract and reveal which team performs better on the day.
- ›Recent form and goals-for/against records for both clubs in their latest five matches
- ›Head-to-head historical performance between Shimizu S-Pulse and Cerezo Ōsaka
- ›Injury or suspension status of key players for either squad ahead of the fixture
- ›Home/away advantage and venue conditions for the scheduled match
- ›Market depth and liquidity: the $0 daily volume suggests minimal price discovery, making current probabilities vulnerable to early information or larger trades
What moved the line
- May 6Shimizu S-Pulse (-2.5)↓30pp34→4¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Shimizu S-Pulse (-1.5)↓27pp39→12¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5)↓21pp31→10¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 3.5↓20pp39→19¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Cerezo Ōsaka (-1.5)↓17pp36→19¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.