Will Ali Truwit be a Runway Model at The SI Swimsuit Runway Show during Swim Week 2026 in Miami at the W South Beach
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 24% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
24%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−18pp
15h ago
24h volume
$685
11 contracts
Closes
Jun 11, 2026
13 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Ashtin Earle be a Runway Model at The SI Swimsuit Runway Show during Swim Week 2026 in Miami at the W South Beach
Cluster 2
Will Ali Truwit be a Runway Model at The SI Swimsuit Runway Show during Swim Week 2026 in Miami at the W South Beach
Cluster 3
Will Jordan Chiles be a Runway Model at The SI Swimsuit Runway Show during Swim Week 2026 in Miami at the W South Beach
Cluster 4
Will Olandria Lashae Carthen be a Runway Model at The SI Swimsuit Runway Show during Swim Week 2026 in Miami at the W South Beach
Cluster 5
Will Nina Agdal be a Runway Model at The SI Swimsuit Runway Show during Swim Week 2026 in Miami at the W South Beach
Cluster 6
Will Hilary Duff be a Runway Model at The SI Swimsuit Runway Show during Swim Week 2026 in Miami at the W South Beach
Cluster 7
Will Brittany Mahomes be a Runway Model at The SI Swimsuit Runway Show during Swim Week 2026 in Miami at the W South Beach
Cluster 8
Will Jilly Anais be a Runway Model at The SI Swimsuit Runway Show during Swim Week 2026 in Miami at the W South Beach
Cluster 9
Will Kristin Juszczyk be a Runway Model at The SI Swimsuit Runway Show during Swim Week 2026 in Miami at the W South Beach
Cluster 10
Will Olivia Dunne be a Runway Model at The SI Swimsuit Runway Show during Swim Week 2026 in Miami at the W South Beach
Cluster 11
Will Alix Earle be a Runway Model at The SI Swimsuit Runway Show during Swim Week 2026 in Miami at the W South Beach
Analysis
This market estimates a 42% chance that Ali Truwit will appear as a runway model at Sports Illustrated's Swimsuit fashion show during Miami Swim Week 2026, scheduled for the W South Beach. The probability reflects uncertainty about casting decisions that typically finalize closer to the event date. Key factors include Truwit's prior modeling experience with SI, her social media following and public profile, and how the publication structures its model roster this year. Comparable markets show varied probabilities for other potential models, with some names trading higher (Brittany Mahomes at 50%) and others lower (Sophie Cunningham at 3%), suggesting individual casting decisions remain unpredictable. The uncertainty should largely resolve once SI Swimsuit officially announces the runway lineup, which typically occurs in the weeks immediately preceding the show.
- ›Ali Truwit's history of appearing in Sports Illustrated content and prior runway show participation
- ›The timing of official model announcements by SI Swimsuit, which typically occur 2-4 weeks before the scheduled event
- ›Comparable model probabilities on the same market suggest casting remains genuinely uncertain rather than predetermined
- ›Truwit's current media presence and brand partnerships relative to competing models in the SI ecosystem
- ›Whether Swim Week 2026 lineup prioritizes returning established models versus featuring new talent
What moved the line
- May 28Brittany Mahomes↑36pp25→61¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Nina Agdal↑34pp16→50¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Ashtin Earle↑27pp22→49¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Jilly Anais↑26pp17→43¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Kristin Juszczyk↑24pp19→43¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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