Solana all time high by ___
Leader sits at 10% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 6%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31, 2026
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
6¢
September 30, 2026
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
242 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Solana all time high by ___
Analysis
This market asks whether Solana will reach a new all-time high by a specific date. At 10%, traders currently assign a low probability to this outcome. Solana's previous all-time high was approximately $260 in November 2021. For this to resolve positively, SOL would need substantial appreciation from current levels, requiring either broad crypto market strength or Solana-specific adoption catalysts. The main drivers of the probability are Bitcoin and Ethereum momentum—both showing modest positive pricing for all-time-high outcomes by mid-to-late 2026—and Solana's competitive position among layer-1 blockchains. Network activity, validator growth, and TVL trends will influence whether traders believe Solana can outpace its previous peak. The key uncertainty is whether macro conditions and competitive dynamics permit Solana to capture significant capital flows relative to other assets through the contract expiration date.
- ›Solana's current price relative to its ~$260 November 2021 all-time high and the capital appreciation required to exceed it
- ›Trading volume and daily active users on Solana relative to competing layer-1 chains, measurable on-chain
- ›Bitcoin and Ethereum all-time-high probabilities (19% and 13% by December 2026 respectively), indicating overall market sentiment on crypto gains
- ›Total value locked and application ecosystem growth on Solana, trackable through major DeFi and NFT platforms
- ›Macro conditions: spot Bitcoin ETF flows, regulatory developments, and interest rate environment affecting risk asset appetite through contract expiration
What moved the line
- May 1September 30, 2026↓21pp28→7¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29December 31, 2026↓4pp15→11¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28December 31, 2026↑3pp12→15¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in bitcoin
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (10% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.