between 8,000 to 8,999 border encounters in Apr 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
5%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
9 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “btc price on jan 1, 2027” vs “Will the S&P 500 be between 6800 and 6999.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
btc price on jan 1, 2027
BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?: 55,000 to 59,999.99
KXBTCY-27JAN0100-B57500
BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?: 75,000 to 79,999.99
KXBTCY-27JAN0100-B77500
BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?: 70,000 to 74,999.99
KXBTCY-27JAN0100-B72500
BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?: 40,000 to 44,999.99
KXBTCY-27JAN0100-B42500
BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?: 105,000 to 109,999.99
KXBTCY-27JAN0100-B107500
BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?: 50,000 to 54,999.99
KXBTCY-27JAN0100-B52500
BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?: 45,000 to 49,999.99
KXBTCY-27JAN0100-B47500
BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?: 35,000 to 39,999.99
KXBTCY-27JAN0100-B37500
Cluster 2
Will the S&P 500 be between 6800 and 6999.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST
Will the S&P 500 be between 6800 and 6999.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 6,800 to 6,999.99
KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B6900
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.