Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
6%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$12K
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
0xd595eb…f116
Analysis
This contract prices the probability that Donald Trump will acquire Greenland before the end of 2026 at 7%. The 7% probability reflects the substantial legal, diplomatic, and practical barriers to U.S. acquisition of Danish territory, combined with Trump's publicly expressed interest in the strategic Arctic location during his first term. The probability could shift based on changes in U.S.-Denmark relations, explicit policy announcements from the Trump administration, or negotiations with Denmark's government. A related Kalshi contract pricing U.S. acquisition of any Greenland portion by January 2029 at 34% suggests markets view a longer timeframe as more plausible. The most significant near-term catalyst would be direct statements from Trump officials regarding acquisition intentions or diplomatic talks with Denmark. Absent concrete negotiation announcements, the short timeframe makes formal acquisition extremely unlikely.
- ›Greenland is sovereign Danish territory with no active independence movement seeking U.S. annexation, creating a structural barrier to acquisition
- ›Trump has publicly discussed acquiring Greenland but made no formal acquisition proposal or initiated official negotiations with Denmark
- ›The 2026 deadline provides minimal time for the complex legal, constitutional, and diplomatic processes required for territorial transfer
- ›A longer-dated contract (through January 2029) trades at 34%, suggesting markets see acquisition as more plausible with extended timeframe
- ›No scheduled diplomatic events or policy announcements from the Trump administration regarding Greenland acquisition have been publicly confirmed
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (6% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.