Trump ballroom project unblocked by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 28% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
28%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
22 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Trump ballroom project unblocked by
Trump ballroom project unblocked by...?: May 31
0x9c88a9…1ea7
Analysis
This prediction estimates a 50% probability that a Trump ballroom project will be unblocked by a specified date. The outcome depends primarily on regulatory decisions, zoning approvals, or legal challenges that could either facilitate or prevent the project's advancement. The key factor that would resolve uncertainty is any official announcement from relevant authorities—whether a permit is granted, a lawsuit is dismissed, or a regulatory barrier is removed—which would definitively answer whether the project has been unblocked by the deadline. Market pricing at 50% suggests participants view obstacles and enabling factors as roughly balanced, with no clear consensus on which direction the project will move.
- ›Official permit approval or regulatory clearance status from relevant local or state authorities
- ›Active litigation or legal challenges currently blocking the project and their resolution timeline
- ›Changes in zoning regulations or land-use designations affecting the property
- ›Political shifts or changes in administration positions that could influence regulatory treatment
- ›Public statements or formal announcements from Trump organization representatives about project status
What moved the line
- May 3May 31↑14pp35→49¢ · Polymarket
- May 6May 31↓13pp49→36¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (28% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.