Will Trump endorse at least 3 people on Truth Social this week
Leader sits at 38% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 33%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 3
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
33¢
At least 5
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$725
thin orderbook
Closes
May 10, 2026
1 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump endorse at least
Will Trump endorse at least 5 people on Truth Social this week?: At least 5
KXTRUMPENDORSEMENTS-26MAY09-A5
Will Trump endorse at least 15 people on Truth Social this week?: At least 15
KXTRUMPENDORSEMENTS-26MAY09-A15
Will Trump endorse at least 3 people on Truth Social this week?: At least 3
KXTRUMPENDORSEMENTS-26MAY09-A3
Will Trump endorse at least 20 people on Truth Social this week?: At least 20
KXTRUMPENDORSEMENTS-26MAY09-A20
Will Trump endorse at least 10 people on Truth Social this week?: At least 10
KXTRUMPENDORSEMENTS-26MAY09-A10
What moved the line
- May 8At least 10↓12pp25→13¢ · Kalshi
- May 7At least 10↓8pp33→25¢ · Kalshi
- May 7At least 3↓6pp50→44¢ · Kalshi
- May 7At least 5↓4pp41→37¢ · Kalshi
- May 7At least 15↓4pp11→7¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.