Will Donald J. Trump Jr. be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Donald J. Trump Jr. be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. Trump Jr.'s nomination odds have tripled from 1¢ to 3¢ over the past week, though the 3% probability remains deeply unlikely with 936 days until the 2028 election.
Analysis
Trump Jr.'s nomination odds have tripled from 1¢ to 3¢ over the past week, though the 3% probability remains deeply unlikely with 936 days until the 2028 election. The extreme 1261% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the massive asymmetry between the tiny 3¢ price and potential $1 payout, but this is offset by a moderate 32 Cliff Risk Index and thin $12.8K daily volume relative to $1.23M open interest, suggesting limited liquidity for position sizing. The 1¢ spread is tight, but the neutral regime and substantial time horizon make this more of a speculative long-shot bet than a signal of material nomination probability.
Resolution rules
If Donald J. Trump Jr. wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRESNOMR-28-DJTJR yes 100