Tuyo FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Leader sits at 46% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 44%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$150M
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
44¢
$100M
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$234
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
572 days
Venue
Polymarket
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Tuyo FDV above ___ one day after launch
Tuyo FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $800M
0x8e4f89…2556
Tuyo FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $700M
0xacfd57…047a
Tuyo FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $300M
0xebd661…f3a5
Tuyo FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $50M
0x0c1a20…94d5
Tuyo FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $80M
0xc264b1…26c1
Tuyo FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $20M
0xd00db0…20b3
Tuyo FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $150M
0xbd014b…2b84
Tuyo FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M
0x65791b…a3a3
Tuyo FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M
0x2d7cbc…de67
Tuyo FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $1B
0x2cb749…5aa2
Tuyo FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $1.5B
0x120232…f31e
Analysis
This market estimates a 44% probability that Tuyo will achieve a fully diluted valuation (FDV) above $500M within one day of its launch. The probability reflects uncertainty about initial market demand and investor appetite for the project. Key drivers include the size of the token allocation available at launch, comparable valuations of recent similar projects, and early investor commitments. The primary resolution event is Tuyo's official launch date, when FDV becomes calculable from trading activity and market prices. Current market odds suggest participants view a $500M valuation as somewhat more likely than not to be missed initially, with lower price thresholds ($50M-$100M) showing higher probabilities and higher thresholds ($1B-$1.5B) showing correspondingly lower ones.
- ›Market cap calculation on day one depends on circulating supply at launch and opening trading prices across exchanges
- ›Comparable recent token launches show high variance in initial FDV outcomes, from $100M to $5B+, making prediction difficult
- ›Contractual terms—vesting schedules, allocation sizes, and lockup periods—directly determine how much supply reaches market on day one
- ›Initial exchange listings (CEX vs. DEX, geographic reach, trading pairs) affect price discovery and FDV estimation methods
- ›Pre-launch investor commitments and announced allocations provide floor estimates but do not guarantee actual day-one trading volumes or prices
What moved the line
- Jun 3$80M↓16pp44→28¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 2$700M↑15pp14→29¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 5$150M↑15pp30→45¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3$700M↓14pp29→15¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 2$150M↓12pp38→26¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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