US x Cuba economic deal by...
Leader sits at 57% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 14%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
14¢
July 31
Spread
43pp
contested
24h volume
$48
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
11 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
US x Cuba economic deal by
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that the United States and Cuba will reach an economic deal by a specified deadline. The 17% level suggests traders view a near-term agreement as unlikely given the historical tensions and competing political priorities in both countries. The probability would shift primarily based on changes in US administration policy toward Cuba, signals from Cuban leadership about willingness to negotiate, and whether Congress removes restrictions on US-Cuba trade. Any high-level diplomatic engagement or public statements from either government indicating serious negotiations would likely move this probability significantly. The timing of the next US presidential administration and their stated position on Cuba relations represents a key uncertainty factor, as does the current status of Congressional restrictions on normalization efforts.
- ›Current US trade embargo remains in place with no recent signals of imminent policy reversal from the sitting administration
- ›Cuban economic conditions and leadership stability, including the June 30 probability of Díaz-Canel remaining in power (19%), may affect negotiating capacity or willingness
- ›Congressional approval would likely be required for major economic normalization, adding a procedural barrier beyond executive negotiation
- ›Recent pattern of US-Cuba relations shows limited diplomatic momentum compared to 2014-2017 normalization period
- ›Market volume on related Cuba contracts is relatively low, suggesting limited trader conviction and potential for sharp probability moves on new information
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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