What will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit in May 2026?
Leader sits at 19% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↑ $280
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
5¢
↑ $288
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$160
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
8 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit in May 2026
Analysis
This contract reflects market expectations that Amazon's stock will touch $256 or below at some point during May 2026, currently priced at 45% probability. The leading bearish outcome dominates over the bullish $280+ scenarios, suggesting traders are pricing in either consolidation or downside pressure on the stock this month. The gap between the bearish ($256 and below) and bullish ($280 and above) contracts indicates uncertainty about Amazon's near-term direction. Key drivers include broader tech sector momentum, earnings announcements or guidance revisions, macroeconomic factors affecting cloud and consumer spending, and any significant company-specific news. The resolution depends entirely on whether Amazon's intraday or closing price touches these specific levels before May 31, 2026, making it sensitive to daily volatility and market moves rather than fundamental changes.
- ›Amazon's current price proximity to $256 and $280 strike levels—distance from current spot determines probability of intraday touches
- ›24h trading volume concentration ($3,428 on $280 call, $2,870 on $256 put) shows active disagreement between bullish and bearish traders
- ›The $256 contract leading at 45% versus $280 at 24% suggests marginal bearish lean, not strong conviction—only 21-point price gap to breach
- ›Remaining calendar days in May and historical volatility patterns for AMZN during this period affect likelihood of touching either boundary
- ›Any AWS earnings, macro data releases, or Fed communications in late May could create the volatility needed to touch extreme price levels
What moved the line
- May 20↓ $248↓17pp37→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 19↓ $248↑14pp23→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 19↑ $280↓12pp26→14¢ · Polymarket
- May 22↓ $248↓8pp14→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 19↑ $288↓7pp12→5¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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