What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31
Leader sits at 14% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 12%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Oil Sanction Relief
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
12¢
Unfreeze Iranian Assets
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$96K
liquid
Closes
May 31, 2026
3 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31
Analysis
This contract estimates the likelihood that Trump will concede to at least one Iranian demand by May 31, 2026—just six days away. The 25% probability reflects divided sentiment across four possible outcomes, with unfreezing assets viewed as the most probable demand Trump might accept. The near-term timeframe and narrow window for negotiation suggest market participants view a deal as unlikely but non-trivial. The outcome depends on whether active U.S.-Iran talks are occurring and whether Trump prioritizes sanctions relief or asset access as negotiating leverage in the final week of May. The resolution will occur automatically when the deadline passes, making this a pure binary-like contract on near-term diplomatic movement.
- ›No public announcement of active Trump-Iran negotiations has been reported as of late May 2026, suggesting low baseline probability for agreement in six days
- ›The contract's structure shows unfreezing assets (26¢) and oil sanctions relief (24¢) are favored over uranium enrichment rights (3¢) and strait transit fees (3¢), indicating market expectation that financial/economic demands are more negotiable than security concessions
- ›Trump's historical negotiating pattern and current relationship with Iran would need to shift dramatically within one week to produce an agreement
- ›The spread between the top two outcomes (26¢ to 24¢) indicates near-parity, suggesting genuine uncertainty rather than consensus that a deal is impossible
- ›Any Iranian demand concession would likely require either a crisis event forcing negotiation or pre-existing back-channel talks not yet public
What moved the line
- May 25Unfreeze Iranian Assets↑7pp24→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 27Oil Sanction Relief↓6pp33→27¢ · Polymarket
- May 27Unfreeze Iranian Assets↓5pp27→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 26Unfreeze Iranian Assets↓4pp31→27¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (14% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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