SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (Jun 18, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
Winner-take-all answer·5 source contracts·Polymarket 5·closed just now

What will OpenAI's public ticker be?

Bracket$OAI

Leader sits at 61% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 14%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

61%

$OAI

runner-up 14¢leader 61¢

Outcomes

5

winner-take-all

Runner-up

14¢

$OPAI

Spread

47pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

not derived

Venue

Polymarket

5 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtoday$LLM: 6% (2 days, 2 points)$LLM: 6% on 2026-06-18
Top 1 candidate by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market estimates a 61% probability that OpenAI will trade publicly under the ticker symbol $OAI if the company chooses to go public. The strong positioning of $OAI reflects its alignment with the company's abbreviation and historical precedent for tech companies using short, recognizable tickers. The probability remains uncertain because OpenAI has not announced formal IPO plans, timing is unconfirmed, and regulatory or strategic factors could lead to an alternative ticker. The main drivers are OpenAI's publicly stated interest in exploring public markets, CEO statements about potential timelines, and typical SEC ticker allocation practices. Resolution depends on OpenAI filing an S-1 registration statement and receiving ticker approval from SEC and FINRA, which would provide definitive confirmation. Until then, the market reflects educated speculation based on naming conventions and limited official guidance.

  • OpenAI has not filed an S-1 registration statement or announced a formal IPO date as of June 2026
  • SEC and FINRA must formally approve the chosen ticker symbol; OpenAI cannot unilaterally select $OAI
  • Alternative tickers ($OPAI, $LLM, $OA) collectively trade at 24¢, indicating meaningful uncertainty about which symbol will be selected
  • Historical precedent shows tech companies sometimes receive non-obvious tickers due to availability, regulatory conflicts, or strategic preference (e.g., Nvidia trades as $NVDA, not $NV)
  • No scheduled catalyst or filing deadline has been publicly announced that would resolve this question in the near term

Recently closed in ai tech

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Other questions in ai tech.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.