Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)
Leader sits at 82% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 17%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Scott Wiener
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
17¢
Saikat Chakrabarti
Spread
65pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$234
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
24 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)
Analysis
This contract estimates that a particular candidate has a 78% chance of finishing first in the 2026 primary election for California's 11th congressional district, formerly held by Nancy Pelosi. The frontrunner's dominant probability reflects either strong name recognition, fundraising advantage, or organizational support within the district, while the runner-up at 18% suggests a competitive challenger. The outcome will likely be determined by voter preference in the primary scheduled for June 2026. Key uncertainties include candidate campaign momentum, endorsement patterns, and whether unexpected candidates enter the race. Resolution depends entirely on official primary results from California election authorities.
- ›The leading candidate's 78% probability versus the runner-up's 18% indicates substantial but not overwhelming separation in market expectations
- ›Primary election date is scheduled for June 2026; candidate filing deadlines and final field composition will clarify contest competitiveness before then
- ›Related Kalshi contracts show incumbent or well-established candidates in nearby districts (CA-25, CA-28, CA-17) trading at 89-96 cents, suggesting strong incumbents or frontrunners perform similarly across the state
- ›The runner-up candidate is priced at 18%, indicating the market assigns meaningful probability to an upset scenario rather than a one-candidate race
- ›Trading volume on the CA-11 contracts is substantially lower ($443-$776 per contract) than comparable districts ($3,069-$12,237), suggesting lower market confidence or attention to this particular race
What moved the line
- May 2Scott Wiener↑3pp78→81¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (82% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
California Billionaire Wealth Tax Ballot Measure Surges +23¢ — Now 93¢ to Appear
The Polymarket contract for whether a one-time billionaire tax appears on the California 2026 ballot jumped an extraordinary +23¢ to 93¢ today, while the separate 'passes' contract jumped +10¢ to 48¢. This suggests the measure has cleared a major legal or signature-gathering threshold.
2026 Midterms: Democrats 85% to Flip House, Senate a Toss-Up
Prediction markets price Democrats as 85% favorites to flip the House while the Senate races at a coin-flip, with a full Democratic sweep now the single most likely outcome at 50%.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.