Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31
Leader sits at 20% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 7%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
7¢
Pope Leo XIV
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
May 31, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31
Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?: Pope Leo XIV
0x0f0223…dbc4
Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?: Tucker Carlson
0x0b5676…50b0
Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?: Megyn Kelly
0x0a928d…da12
Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?: Marjorie Taylor Greene
0xfbac38…5c6e
Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?: Emmanuel Macron
0x4620c5…a463
Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?: Freidrich Merz
0x5f37cb…05af
What moved the line
- Jun 1Tucker Carlson↑48pp36→84¢ · Polymarket
- May 31Marjorie Taylor Greene↑34pp24→58¢ · Polymarket
- May 31Tucker Carlson↑30pp6→36¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1Marjorie Taylor Greene↑27pp58→85¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3Tucker Carlson↑16pp84→100¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in trump
- Which topic will Donald Trump mention most during Roundtable Chippewa Falls, Wisconsinlast 45% · 1d
- How long will Donald Trump speak for at White House Correspondents' Dinnerlast 92% · 1d
- Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General by June 30last 93% · 2d
- Who will Trump speak to in Maylast 20% · 2d
- Will Trump sign an executive order on...last 25% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in trump.
In trump
Related reading
Trump Insult Markets Heat Up: MTG and Tucker Carlson Now Favorites
With May 31 approaching, traders are betting heavily on Trump publicly insulting specific figures. Marjorie Taylor Greene surged 63¢ to 82¢, and Tucker Carlson jumped 77¢ to 81¢. This indicates a likely public feud before month-end.
Powell's Exit Probability Skyrockets as Trump Influence Looms
The market for Jerome Powell departing as Fed Chair by May 22 surged an unprecedented +48 points, reaching 95¢. This signals a dramatic and sudden reassessment of Federal Reserve leadership stability, raising questions about the future of monetary policy under a potential Trump second term.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.