Will the U.S. withdraw from International Atomic Energy Agency before Jan 20, 2029
Leader sits at 36% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 26%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
World Trade Organization
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
26¢
United Nations
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$95
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
987 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the U.S. withdraw from
Will the U.S. withdraw from United Nations before Jan 20, 2029?: United Nations
KXWITHDRAW-29-UN
Will the U.S. withdraw from Inter-American Development Bank before Jan 20, 2029?: Inter-American Development Bank
KXWITHDRAW-29-IDB
Will the U.S. withdraw from International Atomic Energy Agency before Jan 20, 2029?: International Atomic Energy Agency
KXWITHDRAW-29-IAEA
Will the U.S. withdraw from Interpol before Jan 20, 2029?: Interpol
KXWITHDRAW-29-INTERPOL
Will the U.S. withdraw from OECD before Jan 20, 2029?: OECD
KXWITHDRAW-29-OECD
Will the U.S. withdraw from World Bank Group before Jan 20, 2029?: World Bank Group
KXWITHDRAW-29-WBANK
Will the U.S. withdraw from International Monetary Fund before Jan 20, 2029?: International Monetary Fund
KXWITHDRAW-29-IMF
Will the U.S. withdraw from World Trade Organization before Jan 20, 2029?: World Trade Organization
KXWITHDRAW-29-WTO
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that the United States withdraws from the International Atomic Energy Agency before January 20, 2029—approximately 37 in 100 odds based on current prediction market pricing. The IAEA is a UN-affiliated body responsible for nuclear non-proliferation oversight and cooperation. A withdrawal would represent a significant departure from decades of U.S. nuclear governance policy and could signal major shifts in international relations or administration priorities. The current probability suggests markets view withdrawal as possible but not probable, likely reflecting uncertainty around geopolitical tensions, nuclear diplomacy outcomes, and administrative policy preferences in the period ahead. Key drivers include evolving U.S. foreign policy positions, developments in nuclear negotiations with other nations, and broader international organization engagement decisions that may emerge before the deadline.
- ›Current U.S. nuclear diplomacy stance and whether negotiations with Iran or other nuclear powers influence IAEA engagement
- ›Changes in U.S. foreign policy or leadership priorities toward international institutions between now and January 2029
- ›Specific IAEA resolutions or actions that might provoke U.S. reconsideration of membership
- ›Comparative strength of isolationist versus internationalist policy frameworks within U.S. government during this period
- ›Whether any triggered international crises make IAEA oversight a political flashpoint
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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