KXMLBTEAMTOTAL

# Prediction Market Yield Curve Analysis: KXMLBTEAMTOTAL The yield curve displays a distinctly flat structure across all 210 constituent markets, with all positions sharing a uniform 3-day tenor to resolution on April 26. Within this single-tenor framework, the probability distribution across run-total buckets reveals a consistent downward slope as outcomes move into higher run totals. The cheapest YES probabilities cluster in the highest run-total buckets (bucket 8), where probabilities range from 1% to 8% across different matchups, while the highest probabilities concentrate in the lower buckets (bucket 2), ranging from 64% to 82%. This creates a steep probability gradient within the tenor rather than across time, with the most pronounced compression occurring between buckets 2 and 3, where probabilities typically decline 10-20 percentage points. The flat tenor structure combined with this steep intra-tenor probability distribution indicates the market expects the underlying MLB games to resolve within the next three days with high confidence. The absence of longer-dated contracts suggests minimal uncertainty about timing—the event will occur as scheduled. Instead, the market's primary uncertainty concerns the magnitude of run totals in these games, not whether they will happen. The probability curves across different matchups follow remarkably similar shapes, indicating consistent market expectations about typical run-scoring patterns. The concentration of trading volume in mid-range buckets (particularly around bucket 5-6 probabilities of 15-30%) suggests the market views these outcomes as most likely, with tail risks in both directions priced as increasingly unlikely.