MEDIUM·BUY YES·macroApr 13, 2026
Nickel ladder repricing: lower thresholds lag higher-strike moves
Nickel contracts at $15,099–$15,299/T surged +13-15¢ today while the $15,999 contract only moved -9¢ and the $16,299 moved -10¢ — creating an inverted ladder where lower thresholds now price HIGHER probability than their supersets. The $15,099 contract at 62¢ should be >= $15,999 at 51¢ by monotonicity; that 11¢ spread on a same-expiry ladder is a structural edge. Buy YES on the lower-strike contracts that have lagged the repricing.
edge11¢
horizonApr 30, 2026
directionBUY YES
markets3
Catalyst
Nickel price being driven by Iran-linked supply chain concerns and EV demand outlook; ladder monotonicity violated
Risk
Zero volume on these contracts means wide hidden spreads; execution may not be possible at quoted prices
Referenced Markets
sf ideas && sf book KXNICKELMON-26APR3017-T15099.99More Ideas
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