Will Andrei Vasilevskiy win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy?

Vasilevskiy is priced at an exceptionally high 87¢ with a 3-day surge from 63¢, reflecting strong confidence in the Tampa Bay goaltender's Vezina prospects, though the 3¢ gap to Kalshi (90¢) suggests some arbitrage opportunity. The extreme 3748% implied yield on "No" combined with modest $95.7k daily volume and 78% realized volatility indicates thin liquidity supporting what may be an overextended consensus, particularly given the Cliff Risk Index of 7 and 71 days until resolution when injury or performance regression could materially shift odds. The 9¢ bid-ask spread and neutral regime score (0.432) suggest the market lacks strong directional conviction despite the headline price, warranting caution on the sustainability of this elevated probability.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Vezina Trophy. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Vezina Trophy, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Regime

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