Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
0x1595b4818eeb1ea1e0bec5de6f057218e557feee9b405a0e930d290384fa1d16 · closes Jul 20, 2026 · 97 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 7116.3% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 19.7% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 19 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | -0.2% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.00 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 3558% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
0 indicator snapshots · 71 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x1595b4818eeb1ea1e0bec5de6f057218e557feee9b405a0e930d290384fa1d16 yes 100