Will Logan Henderson win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.3M open interest, creating a massive 43¢ bid-ask spread and a suspicious 499% implied yield on the yes side that likely reflects pricing dysfunction rather than true probability. The 4,353% realized volatility and 19.55 vol ratio suggest wild historical swings, while the recent 7-point price jump from 15¢ to 22¢ combined with a 4.3/hour information arrival rate indicates active but thin trading that could be driven by minimal order flow. With 245 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be a speculative position market rather than an efficiently-priced prediction, making the 22% probability difficult to validate without comparable liquidity on competing venues.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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