Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 4.0% and 4.4%?

The market is pricing an extremely narrow 4.0-4.4% inflation band at just 19¢, implying only a 19% probability that UK 2026 inflation falls within this specific 0.4 percentage point range—a notably pessimistic view given the 498.7% implied yield for "Yes" positions. The extraordinarily high realized volatility of 1757% and vol ratio of 9.09 suggest extreme price swings despite minimal liquidity ($9.09 in 24h volume), indicating this market may be thinly traded with outsized moves from small order flows. With 275 days to resolution and an info arrival rate of 3.9 events per hour, significant repricing is likely as actual UK inflation data emerges, though the current pricing suggests traders view this specific inflation band as an unlikely outcome.

Resolution rules

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report. The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar

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