Will Krum Zarkov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?

This market prices Zarkov at just 1% despite substantial open interest of $5.1M, suggesting either strong consensus against his candidacy or limited market awareness of his political viability. The flat price action over seven days and tight 1¢ spread indicate minimal conviction trading, with the $79K daily volume representing only 1.5% of open interest—unusually low liquidity for a binary event with 16 months to expiry. The extremely low probability warrants scrutiny: if Zarkov holds any meaningful political position or polling support in Bulgaria, this could represent mispricing, though the stagnant volume suggests the market may simply lack sufficient information flow on Bulgarian politics.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Bulgaria following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Bulgaria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Regime

Trade