Will De'Von Achane be traded?

29¢

Bid/Ask 2/56¢·Spread 54¢·Vol $0·OI $7.133·Closes Jul 22, 2026·97d remaining

0x7e5dfc792390e4667149853bea2b49741b94f415e3478905b4679b9426edbdd6

7-day price1191 snapshots · 2 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 54¢ spread, making the 29¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading. The astronomical 1338% implied yield on the "Yes" side combined with 9430% realized volatility suggests either severe mispricing or minimal market participation, with only $7.133 in open interest across a 97-day window. The recent price decline from 50¢ to 41¢ over seven days and elevated info arrival rate (8.2/h) indicate active discussion around De'Von Achane's trade prospects, but the illiquidity makes this more of a sentiment indicator than a tradeable market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed NFL player is traded by July 22, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1338.1%

IY (No) 106.4%

Adj IY 1338%

CRI 4

RV 9430%

VR 39.08

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1338.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	106.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1338%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	9430%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	39.08	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	8.2/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	1.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

54¢

Computed

4/16/2026, 7:24:07 AM

Indicators computed 4/16/2026, 6:53:27 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x7e5dfc792390e4667149853bea2b49741b94f415e3478905b4679b9426edbdd6 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →