Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?

22¢

Bid/Ask 22/24¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $132.06·OI $46,524.5·Closes Dec 31, 2026·259d remaining

KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-OPEN

7-day price45 snapshots · 5 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows significant bearish momentum with the price declining 24% over seven days from 29¢ to 22¢, suggesting declining confidence in OpenAI maintaining coding model supremacy by year-end 2026. The 498.9% implied yield on the Yes side appears attractive but reflects the low probability and substantial time decay risk, while the modest $132 daily volume and $46.5k open interest indicate thin liquidity that could amplify price swings on new information. With 259 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the market appears to be pricing in meaningful competitive threats to OpenAI's coding capabilities, though the 2¢ spread provides reasonable entry/exit efficiency.

Resolution rules

If OpenAI has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 498.9%

IY (No) 39.7%

Adj IY 227%

CRI 4

Overround -0.0%

LAS 0.09

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	498.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	39.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	227%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.09	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/16/2026, 6:13:26 AM

Observability lowEvent type scientific

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/16/2026, 6:08:24 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-OPEN yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →