Will average gas prices be above or below $4.70 by Dec 31, 2026?

37¢

Bid/Ask 22/37¢·Spread 15¢·Vol $0·OI $947.98·Closes Dec 31, 2026·259d remaining

KXAAAGASMAXFL-26DEC31-4.70

7-day price38 snapshots · 8 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

The market is pricing in only a 37% probability that average gas prices exceed $4.70 by end-2026, despite an extremely asymmetric risk-reward profile where the "Yes" side offers 498.9% annualized yield versus just 39.7% for "No"—a 12.5x spread suggesting significant mispricing or deep skepticism about inflation. With zero 24-hour volume, $947.98 open interest, and a wide 15¢ bid-ask spread on a market with 259 days to expiry, liquidity is severely constrained, making the quoted price potentially unreliable and the high implied yield partly a liquidity premium rather than pure probability signal. The neutral regime score (0.442) and flat 7-day price action indicate the market lacks conviction, though the cliff risk index of 4 suggests some structural concerns about how this resolves.

Resolution rules

If average regular gas prices for Florida are strictly greater than $4.70 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 498.9%

IY (No) 39.7%

Adj IY 79%

CRI 4

EE 36.000

Overround 0.8%

▶ Full indicator table (7)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	498.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	39.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	79%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
EE	36.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	0.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.68	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.442

Spread

15¢

Computed

4/16/2026, 6:13:04 AM

SF edge 36.0¢ yesObservability lowEvent type financial

Edges (1)

NO +36¢thesis — Oil above $100 drives electricity costs up. Data center operating costs surge. A

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/16/2026, 6:08:24 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXAAAGASMAXFL-26DEC31-4.70 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →