Will Bill Cassidy be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?

Bill Cassidy is trading at a significant discount on Polymarket (12¢) compared to Kalshi (26¢), suggesting either mispricing or differing trader confidence across venues—a notable 14-cent arbitrage gap. The extremely high implied yield of 10,031% on the "Yes" side reflects the low price, but with only $5.47 in 24-hour volume and $10.86 in open interest, liquidity is thin and the market may struggle to attract informed flow before the May 2026 expiry. The 1,130% realized volatility and elevated cliff risk (7/10) indicate this market has experienced sharp moves despite appearing flat over the past week, suggesting underlying uncertainty about whether a primary will actually occur.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Louisiana. If no 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Louisiana Republican Party; however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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