Will Bill Cassidy win the first round of the 2026 Louisiana Senate Republican primary?

27¢

Bid/Ask 26/33¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $67.62·OI $658.47·Closes May 16, 2027·392d remaining

KXLARSENR1-26MAY16-BCAS

7-day price13 snapshots · 5 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

The 27¢ price represents a significant 15¢ arbitrage gap versus Polymarket's 12¢, suggesting either mispricing on Kalshi or divergent trader expectations across venues. The implied yield on Yes contracts (264.8%) is exceptionally high relative to the 392-day timeframe, indicating either substantial perceived undervaluation or elevated tail risk that the cliff risk index (3) partially confirms. Liquidity is thin at $658 open interest with a 7¢ spread, and the sharp 23¢ rally over seven days warrants caution about whether this reflects genuine fundamental shifts or momentum-driven repricing ahead of the 2026 primary.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 12¢(Δ +15¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.78IY 10004.4%Close-time delta 8774h

Resolution rules

If Bill Cassidy wins the first round of the 2026 Louisiana Senate Republican primary, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 264.8%

IY (No) 32.7%

Adj IY 132%

CRI 3

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	264.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	32.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	132%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

7¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 6:22:09 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 5:53:19 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLARSENR1-26MAY16-BCAS yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →