Will Harry Kane record the most Player of the Match awards during the 2025 UEFA Champions League?

62¢
Bid/Ask 33/91¢·Spread 58¢·Vol $0·OI $18.487·Closes May 31, 2026·45d remaining
0x85ca75b0adad859523569ae4779fd70c55b9a197c58308611f0cbabae1a953dd
7-day price256 snapshots · 6 regime
69¢49¢Apr 8Apr 16

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $18.5k open interest and a wide 58¢ spread, suggesting difficulty executing trades at the posted 62¢ price. The asymmetric implied yields (499.5% for Yes vs. 1329.7% for No) and elevated realized volatility of 547% indicate significant uncertainty around Kane's ability to lead in Player of the Match awards, particularly given competition from other elite forwards in Europe's premier club competition. With 45 days until expiry and the tournament still in progress, the neutral regime and modest 2.0 info arrivals per hour suggest the market is awaiting concrete performance data rather than reacting to breaking news.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who collects the most Player of the Match awards through all rounds of the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League competition. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by UEFA Champions League rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2025-26 Champions League competition is cancelled, postponed after June 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA (https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/029d-1ebd2e90ac06-6c331a7ee578-1000--every-uefa-champions-league-player-of-the-match/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 500.1%
IY (No) 1331.3%
Adj IY 86%
CRI 2
RV 482%
VR 2.09
▶ Full indicator table (9)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)500.1%
IY (No)1331.3%
Adj IY86%
CRI2
RV482%
VR2.09
IAR1.8/h
Overround0.0%
LAS0.94

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.341
Spread
58¢
Computed
4/16/2026, 6:26:52 AM
Observability lowEvent type sports
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/16/2026, 6:23:29 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x85ca75b0adad859523569ae4779fd70c55b9a197c58308611f0cbabae1a953dd yes 100

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