Will Alexis Hill win the 2026 Nevada Governor Democratic primary election?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $12.6K open interest, suggesting the 4¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus. The 7-day collapse from 7¢ to 4¢ combined with a 3¢ spread and astronomical 17,056% implied yield on the Yes side indicates this is likely a thin, speculative position rather than an efficiently-priced contract. With 51 days to expiration and a high cliff risk index of 24, the market appears vulnerable to sharp repricing if Hill gains visibility or if larger traders enter the venue.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Nevada, scheduled to take place on June 9, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Nevada Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Nevada Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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