Will Dave Roberts win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 46¢ spread despite over a year until expiration, suggesting minimal trader interest in Roberts' 2026 prospects. The 23¢ price has collapsed 37% over seven days from 36¢, though the realized volatility of 2466% and high info arrival rate (0.9/h) indicate this decline reflects genuine repricing rather than noise. The asymmetric implied yields—498% for Yes versus 44.5% for No—combined with the thin $1,111 open interest and elevated cliff risk index flag this as a highly speculative position with significant execution risk for any meaningful bet size.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the manager who wins the 2026 National League Manager of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the manager whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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