Will Angus King III win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a staggering 11,086.8% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe illiquidity or a significant analytical gap between venues—Kalshi shows no comparable pricing data. The 6¢ price reflects only a 6% probability for King III despite his status as an incumbent U.S. Senator, which appears unusually low for a primary frontrunner, though the minimal 24-hour volume of $67.68 and wide 4¢ spread indicate dangerously thin liquidity that could amplify price distortions. With 52 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 16, traders should be cautious of sudden repricing as the June 9 primary approaches and more market participants potentially enter.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Maine, scheduled to take place on June 9, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Maine Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Maine Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Indicators

Regime

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