Will Angus King III be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Maine?

This market shows a significant cross-venue arbitrage opportunity, with Kalshi pricing King at just 1¢ versus Polymarket's 9¢—an 800% spread that suggests either Kalshi's illiquidity ($0 volume, $1,870 open interest) is depressing the price or Polymarket traders are overvaluing his nomination chances. The 3¢ bid-ask spread on Kalshi is notably wide relative to the 1¢ midpoint, indicating thin liquidity that could explain the pricing disconnect. With over 18 months until the November 2026 close, the market has ample time for information to resolve this discrepancy, though the zero recent volume suggests limited conviction either direction.

Resolution rules

If Angus King III wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Maine Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Regime

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