Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?

John James is priced at 38¢ with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 520% on the yes side, suggesting either severe underpricing or substantial tail risk that the market is pricing in. The 915% realized volatility and 4.34 vol ratio indicate this contract has experienced extreme price swings relative to current levels, though the flat 7-day price movement and neutral regime score suggest recent stabilization. With only $132 in 24-hour volume against $15.9M open interest and a wide 8¢ spread, liquidity is notably thin for the open interest size, creating potential execution challenges and vulnerability to informed traders.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Michigan, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Michigan Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Michigan Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Indicators

Regime

Trade