Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?

The market is pricing in a strong 86% probability of passage with a tight 1¢ spread, though the extreme 3601% implied yield on the Yes side and 100000% on the No side reflect the binary nature of the resolution occurring in just 2 days. The 1¢ cross-venue gap with Kalshi (85¢) is negligible, suggesting efficient pricing, but the 88% realized volatility and elevated 6 Cliff Risk Index indicate significant uncertainty despite the high price, possibly driven by pending legal challenges that could alter the outcome. With $23.7K in 24-hour volume against $36.3K open interest and a modest 0.15 vol ratio, liquidity is moderate for a near-expiry event, and the recent 3¢ decline from 89¢ suggests some late profit-taking or shifting sentiment ahead of the April 21 vote.

Resolution rules

Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026 over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if this proposed constitutional amendment is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in a statewide referendum by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No”. If the referendum vote is definitively cancelled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).

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