Will Virginia redistricting referendum in Virginia pass?

The market is pricing in a strong 85% probability that Virginia's redistricting referendum will pass, with a tight 1¢ spread and modest $22.5K daily volume suggesting reasonable liquidity for a niche political event. The No side offers an extreme 367.5% implied yield, indicating severe underpricing relative to the Yes position—a classic asymmetry that often signals either genuine conviction in the Yes outcome or potential value for contrarian bettors. Notable price decline from 92¢ to 85¢ over seven days warrants monitoring, though the 1¢ cross-venue gap with Polymarket (86¢) is negligible and the 563-day timeframe provides ample runway for sentiment shifts.

Resolution rules

If a referendum that allows the state legislature to redraw Virginia's congressional map passes in Virginia before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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