Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0xe6bcc2f1dd025ce5e1833190f7c60a71171c94f805df55b9ab0ded695ec93565 · closes Nov 7, 2028 · 938 days remaining
Price
Cross-venue · kalshi
Same outcome trades on Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? · match confidence 1.00 · close-time delta 15h
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 447.3% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 3.4% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 12 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | -0.5% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.00 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 224% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
23 indicator snapshots · 72 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0xe6bcc2f1dd025ce5e1833190f7c60a71171c94f805df55b9ab0ded695ec93565 yes 100