Will Ilya Samsonov win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy?

This market shows a significant cross-venue arbitrage opportunity, with Samsonov priced at 0¢ on Polymarket versus 3¢ on Kalshi, suggesting meaningful pricing inefficiency across platforms. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket appears artificially depressed given that Samsonov is an NHL starting goaltender with legitimate Vezina credentials, while the $1.05M open interest indicates real capital is trapped in this illiquid position despite zero 24-hour volume. The substantial gap to expiry (approximately 18 months) combined with zero liquidity on the larger venue makes this market difficult to trade, though the Kalshi price point may better reflect true probability.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Vezina Trophy. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Vezina Trophy, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Regime

Trade