Who will win Vezina Trophy?

This market shows extreme distress signals with Ilya Sorokin's Vezina odds collapsing 92% over seven days (from 26¢ to 2¢), suggesting either a major injury, performance decline, or significant shift in expert consensus that hasn't been widely publicized. The 16,390% implied yield on the Yes side is mathematically unsustainable and reflects the illiquidity crisis—just $64 in 24-hour volume against $21k open interest creates a massive bid-ask disconnect (2¢ spread) where any small buy could spike the price dramatically. With 72 days to expiry and Sorokin still in mid-season play, the 3% probability appears to price in near-certainty of disqualification rather than normal competitive uncertainty, warranting investigation into recent NHL news before taking either side.

Resolution rules

If Ilya Sorokin wins the NHL Vezina Trophy in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes.

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