Will Mandela Barnes be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?

35¢

Bid/Ask 34/35¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $32.46·OI $9,917.43·Closes Nov 3, 2026·199d remaining

KXGOVWINOMD-26-MBAR

7-day price82 snapshots · 3 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

Mandela Barnes is trading at a notable 4¢ discount on Kalshi versus Polymarket's 39¢, suggesting potential arbitrage opportunity or venue-specific liquidity differences. The 355% implied yield on the Yes side appears inflated relative to the 200-day timeframe and low $32.46 daily volume, indicating thin liquidity may be distorting pricing. The recent 3¢ price decline over seven days combined with the 1¢ spread and neutral regime suggests modest selling pressure, though the cross-venue gap warrants monitoring for mean reversion.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 37¢(Δ -2¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.88IY 543.7%Close-time delta 2031h

Resolution rules

If Mandela Barnes wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Wisconsin Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 356.2%

IY (No) 94.5%

Adj IY 356%

CRI 2

RV 149%

VR 0.78

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	356.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	94.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	356%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	149%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.78	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/18/2026, 4:51:56 PM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Indicators computed 4/18/2026, 4:38:22 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXGOVWINOMD-26-MBAR yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →