Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026?

The market is pricing in a 75% probability of House passage, but the extreme realized volatility of 4165% and unusually high no-side yield of 1516% suggest significant uncertainty beneath the surface—likely reflecting sharp swings between optimistic and pessimistic legislative scenarios. With only $3,592 in open interest and a 5¢ spread, liquidity is thin for a political event this consequential, and the 54¢ to 70¢ price movement over seven days indicates recent bullish momentum that may not be fully justified given the neutral regime score. The 56-day window to resolution is relatively tight for tracking major legislative developments, making this a high-volatility, low-liquidity play where tail risks are priced aggressively.

Resolution rules

If a reconciliation bill passes the House before June 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade