Will Mitch McConnell vote for a motion to invoke cloture on the SAVE America Act?

The market is pricing an extremely unlikely outcome at 10¢, with the Yes side offering an extraordinary 25,382% implied yield—a massive risk premium suggesting either deep uncertainty about McConnell's behavior or minimal conviction among traders. With only $8,254.53 in open interest and 13 days to expiry, liquidity is thin and the cliff risk index of 9 indicates high sensitivity to late-breaking developments, while the sharp 4-cent decline over seven days suggests weakening conviction in a Yes resolution. The 1,287% realized volatility and 0.7 info arrivals per hour point to an active information environment where legislative developments could rapidly reprrice this market.

Resolution rules

If Mitch McConnell votes for a motion to invoke cloture on the motion to proceed to or passage of the SAVE America Act in the Senate before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

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