Will Trump say "Mog / Mogged / Mogging" before Apr 20, 2026?
KXTRUMPSAY-26APR20-MOG · closes Apr 20, 2026
Price
Last
3¢
Bid
1¢
Ask
2¢
Spread
1¢
24h Volume
$1,624
Open Interest
$1,604
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | — | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | — | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | — | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | — | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
3 indicator snapshots · 1 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 10:38:05 AM
About this market
If Mog / Mogged / Mogging, or a plural or possessive form of Mog / Mogged / Mogging, is stated by Donald Trump before Apr 20, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXTRUMPSAY-26APR20-MOG yes 100