Will Tesla Inc. report above 440000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 55% probability that Will Tesla Inc. report above 440000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?. This contract trades at 55¢ on Kalshi, closing August 21, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0% price likely unrepresentative of true market sentiment rather than a genuine conviction that Tesla will deliver 440,000+ vehicles in Q2 2026.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0% price likely unrepresentative of true market sentiment rather than a genuine conviction that Tesla will deliver 440,000+ vehicles in Q2 2026. The astronomical 5,469.8% implied yield on the Yes side and 4-cent spread suggest the market is essentially non-functional, with the pricing mechanism broken due to lack of trading activity. With 127 days to expiry and a high cliff risk index of 19, this contract poses significant execution risk and should be approached with extreme caution until meaningful liquidity develops.
Resolution rules
If Tesla Inc. reports above 440000 total deliveries in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTSLA-26JULDELIV-440000.0 yes 100