Will Rosen Zhelyazkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Zhelyazkov's 14¢ price reflects extremely low odds for a Bulgarian presidential victory, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 998% implied yield—a massive risk-reward asymmetry suggesting either deep mispricing or severe illiquidity concerns. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $13.4K open interest and a 3¢ spread indicates thin liquidity, making the high yield potentially illusory; the 499% risk-adjusted yield is more realistic but still elevated. With 225 days to the November 2026 election and a recent 2¢ price uptick from 12¢, this appears to be a speculative long-shot bet rather than a liquid mainstream market.

Resolution rules

Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).

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