Will Croatia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?

Croatia's Eurovision advancement is priced at 76¢ with modest 24-hour volume of $93.92 and relatively thin open interest of $7,226.64, suggesting limited liquidity for a market closing in 23 days. The extreme implied yield on the "No" side (5001.7%) indicates severe mispricing or illiquidity risk, as the 3¢ spread is unusually wide for such a high-probability outcome. With a Cliff Risk Index of 3 and neutral regime conditions, this market appears to reflect genuine uncertainty about Croatia's performance despite the high Yes probability, warranting caution on large position sizing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

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Regime

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